A methodology for senior leaders to detect weak signals, scan horizons, and build resilient strategies in the face of frontier AI and systemic disruption.
Frontier AI, shifting geopolitical blocs, and accelerating ecological constraints are not discrete risks to be managed in isolation. They are interconnected drivers of systemic change that demand a fundamentally different approach to strategic thinking. The organizations that thrive in this environment will not be the ones with the best predictions. They will be the ones with the sharpest peripheral vision, the fastest capacity to reframe, and the discipline to act on early evidence rather than late confirmation.
This program equips leaders with that capacity. It introduces a structured, repeatable methodology for scanning the horizon, interpreting weak signals, and stress-testing strategic assumptions against plausible futures that most planning processes never consider.
Every module in this program is built around SHIFT, a five-stage foresight methodology developed through two decades of practice across 34+ countries, refined through work with the European Commission, UNDP, and Fortune 500 boards.
```How to build a structured scanning practice that captures emerging shifts in technology, regulation, and market behavior before they reach mainstream analysis. Participants learn to distinguish noise from signal and develop organizational routines for continuous environmental awareness.
An applied session using the Three Horizons framework to map how current systems are declining, how transitional innovations are emerging, and where transformative possibilities are taking shape. Leaders leave with a visual map of their own industry’s trajectory across all three time horizons.
Building rigorous, internally consistent scenarios that challenge organizational assumptions. This is not about predicting the future. It is about rehearsing decisions under conditions that leadership teams have never been forced to consider, from regulatory shocks to emergent competitive landscapes driven by autonomous systems.
A practitioner-level overview of how frontier AI models are reshaping value chains, labor markets, institutional trust, and competitive dynamics. This module moves beyond the hype cycle to examine second- and third-order effects that most technology briefings overlook entirely.
Translating foresight into governance. Participants design concrete mechanisms for embedding adaptive capacity into their own organizations: decision triggers, option-creating investments, portfolio-level hedging, and the cultural conditions required for an institution to act early rather than react late.
A facilitated, real-time foresight sprint using participants’ own strategic challenges. Teams apply the full SHIFT methodology to produce scenario narratives, identify strategic options, and present board-ready recommendations. The capstone is designed to be immediately transferable to the participant’s home organization.
This program is designed for leaders who carry institutional responsibility and need foresight to be operational, not decorative. Past cohorts have included board chairs, deputy ministers, managing directors, and heads of strategy for organizations spanning public, private, and multilateral sectors.
It is not a survey course. Participants should be prepared to interrogate their own strategic assumptions and leave with commitments to concrete changes in how their organizations engage with the future.
Delivery options: Available as a standalone intensive (1–3 days), a multi-week executive seminar, or a custom module integrated into existing leadership development programs. All formats can be delivered in-person or remote.
Peter Johnson is a strategic foresight consultant, researcher, and educator whose career has spanned U.S. diplomacy, multilateral development, and frontier technology governance across 34+ countries.
```He serves as AI Expert for the EU Global Technical Assistance Facility and holds a Finance Fellowship with Scale AI’s Human Frontier Collective. His doctoral research at the University of the Basque Country examines how cooperative governance structures compare to emerging DAO models, with a forthcoming Springer Nature chapter on organizational money.
Peter teaches executive education at Humboldt University Berlin and has delivered leadership programs for the European Commission, UNDP, YPO, and the BMW Foundation. He is a Professional Member of the Association of Professional Futurists and serves on the Bretton Woods Committee AI Policy Working Group.
Describe your organization and objectives. We will respond with a tailored proposal within five business days.